A note from me

We are back in The Hague after a very pleasant time with family and friends in France.  I was able to swim almost every day in that period, and yet I still put on a little extra weight thanks to the lovely meals and wine enjoyed with loved ones!  I took an early morning walk in the cooler Autumnal air in the Netherlands today in an attempt to start building a healthy lifestyle habit for the coming months.  

Perhaps because I’m a bit weary after a very long drive and the effort of unpacking, I’m feeling a little down today.  My mood isn’t lifted by the ongoing reports of the miseries in Ukraine and Gaza, or the prospect of the US presidential election, or the unrest in France still emerging from their recent elections, or the aftermath of recent violence in the UK fuelled by nationalistic hatred.  Thinking about these matters reminded me of the lament of my former boss who wondered whether the failures within democratic states and the successes of autocratic regimes were signalling a long-term decline in the power and appeal of democracy.

I’m deliberately writing this Newsletter before the upcoming US Presidential Debate, but you will be reading it afterwards.  This encounter could have a significant impact on the outcome of the November election which will, itself, influence political sentiment around the world.  There will be appeals to different narratives about the nature of society and possibilities for the future.  In this Newsletter, I’ll try to illuminate the nature of a powerful engine driving political developments that are, in my opinion, destructive, and make a few tentative suggestions to counter this.  It will be interesting to see how these forces play out in the debate.

I’m also now preparing for the next experiment with the Dodo webinar which will be hosted for the third time on LinkedIn on Friday September 20^th at 12:00 UK time (13:00 CET).   There was some good engagement last time, and I hope I’m learning to run these sessions better.  From the feedback I’ve received, I’ll aim to give an in-depth perspective on a topic followed by a good Q&A session, rather than trying to respond to comments in the chat as I go along which tends to fragment things.  I’ll also aim for a shorter 45-minute duration which is easier for people to fit within their “lunch hour”.  For folks in other time zones, I hope the shorter duration also makes it easier for you to digest, and also for people accessing the recording rather than the live webinar.

This is an opportunity for you to pose questions or comment on recent, or any, Newsletter content or any topics related to leadership, strategy, scenarios or energy transitions.  

I hope you enjoy it!

My Bi-Weekly Guide

Addressing Democratic Manipulation (and Art)

I can get frustrated and then angry as I see the manipulation of mass sentiment for political purposes to the benefit of the powerful few while being ultimately detrimental to the majority of people.  In democratic regimes, power is both bestowed and legitimised by mass sentiment expressed in voting.  But that same power can be used to manipulate sentiment, creating self-reinforcing dynamics that drive vicious cycles.

In multiple areas around the world we have seen the strong rise of a political force that can be loosely described as populist, resentful, nationalistic, anti-immigration, isolationist and “right-wing”.  In the US, this is expressed in support for the candidacy of former President Trump, in the UK with Farage and ReformUK (as well as Johnson and the right wing of the Tory Party), and in The Netherlands (where I live) with Wilders and the Party for Freedom (PVV).  Elsewhere in Europe, we see this in support for le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party in France, support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), support for the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO), and with support for Prime Minister Orbán and the Fidesz party in Hungary (including his promotion of “illiberal democracy”).  

You may agree with some of the points highlighted by these different parties (I clearly have difficulty with most of them) but it is instructive to consider some common dynamics.

In the first 25 years of rebuilding Europe, parts of Asia, and the “world order” after the destruction unleashed by the Second World War, there was a general mass sentiment of reconstruction, progress and even solidarity with others.  This began to unravel in the 1970’s and, from the early 1980’s, economic and social inequalities have again grown steadily in most relatively developed economies.  With the global economic downturns of the past 15-20 years, a substantial proportion of people have now also experienced pressures on their living standards in absolute as well as relative terms.  

This has generated an underlying sense of fear and resentment with many people, and created fertile political ground for those prepared to embrace this.  Rather than addressing the underlying economic and social ills creating these conditions, however, it has proven increasingly expedient to win attention by stoking this negative sentiment and focusing arguments of self-interest at the very individual and very immediate level.  This includes stoking resentment towards “others” who are portrayed as unfairly taking “our” resources.  Interactions are portrayed as always win/lose rather than often win/win.

Those with the resources to stoke and exploit this fear and resentment are then rewarded with political support and the power to enact policies which reward their own immediate interests and that actually increase inequality, stagnation and decline for the majority, e.g. through restricting the free movement of people and skills, trade, and the ability to fund public services through taxation.  

So, a powerful engine develops.  More inequality creates more fear and resentment which generate support for populists who pander to this, who enact policies that reward and fund those stoking resentment as well as increasing the underlying inequalities.  And so the vicious cycle goes on and on, growing in power.

Eventually the engine may come off the rails when finally self-interested hypocrisy is exposed (as happened through recent UK elections) or democratic society essentially self-destructs or fades away (as happened through authoritarianism in Russia). 

Unfortunately, unless an equally powerful engine then develops that drives society in a different direction, this particular engine will re-emerge over time in some new form and drive a new wave of the politics of fear and resentment.  We see such waves emerging time and again across history.

Fear and resentment built up strongly, for example, in pre-revolutionary France and Russia.  Building on my growing interest in Art History, I am reminded of the painting below by Ilya Repin called “Religious Procession in Kursk Governorate”.  This was painted in the early 1880’s, i.e. about a generation before the Russian revolution.  It is clearly a depiction of a troubled society and a critique of State and Religious power in separating the privileged few from the struggling masses, as well as highlighting environmental destruction in the background.  Fertile ground for political exploitation!

The challenge for politicians coming to power following a de-railing of this destructive engine is the difficulty of providing an alternative.  Prime Minister Starmer in the UK now faces that challenge – it is not enough to hope that the negative appeal of “not being the previous lot” will be sufficient to propel UK society in constructive directions.  Similarly, if Kamala Harris wins the US election, it will not be enough for her to rely on being “not Trump” or to continue the business-as-usual policies of the previous administration in which she served.  Instead, new narratives and new “engines” are required before the old engine is able to re-assert itself.     

I can not tell what these will, or should, look like, but I have some suggestions.

At the heart of the fear and resentment engine are two things – excessive social and economic inequality in society, and the promotion of a narrow conception of self-interest with a win/loss attitude to others.  So the new engine must address inequalities and a promote a broader conception of self-interest that reaches beyond the local and immediate and embraces common goods.  Mass sentiment needs to be encouraged by positive short- and long-term prospects and celebrate the cross-boundary and cross-society relationships that contribute to prosperity.

Possible steps are:

1. Actively celebrating diversity:
   Building a widespread appreciation of the contributions others in society bring to each other, including the long-term benefits of the skills, efforts and culture brought by those from other lands and those from other generations.
   

2. Increased investment and celebration of long-term benefits:
   There is a need to invest in public infrastructures and encourage private investment in ways that are celebrated so people learn to appreciate investment as more than an immediate “cost” but as an ongoing enrichment of their lives. 
   

3. Long-term Plans with short-term Milestones:
   In re-building and healing a fearful and resentful society, there needs to be a clear setting of the long-term direction of travel, e.g. investing in health-care and education, reducing economic and social inequalities, improving the housing stock, delivering high-quality local services, building and decarbonising advanced industries, strengthening economic and security ties with allies, etc..  But all these types of development may take a number of years to bear fruit that is widely appreciated and, in the meantime, the fear and resentment engine can re-assert itself.  So each longer-term goal needs to be accompanied by shorter-term “quick wins” that can demonstrate progress and build confidence.
   

4. Investing in Civic activities and trust-building:
   Most people live much of their lives in-between the distant activities of governments and their daily retail transactions as market consumers.  They have workplaces, they join clubs, they enjoy leisure, they worship, they create, they visit places of interest.  The quality of the interpersonal relationships they develop in these activities is a major contributor to their overall quality of life.  Encouraging active relational lives by investing in facilities and training to support such activities not only builds relationships, it builds trust and a bias towards collaboration with others, as well as opportunities for short-term “quick-wins” as described above.
   

5. Supporting independent media that celebrates common good achievements:
   This is not a plea for false propaganda but a recognition that media of all kinds saturate our lives and strongly but stealthily shape our view of the world.  This is why much attention is given to media campaigns in politics, the long-term political positions of different elements of the press, and the social media influence being exercised by those with particular political interests.  As noted in most courses on politics or international relations, ideological influence is one of the main sources of power for any regime.  Any narrative that relies on celebrating quick wins and the appreciation of progress towards delivering common goods in order to generate positive mass sentiment, needs to be regularly in the media spotlight.  This is where mass legitimacy is maintained.

Question of The Fortnight

Every fortnight I’ll be asking a thought-provoking question in hopes of sparking interesting and enlightening discussion.

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

How worried are you by the politics of fear and resentment and do you believe it can be overcome?

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