A note from me - 18th October

Like so many of us, I hold my head in horror and dismay at unfolding events in and around Gaza. In a future Newsletter, I’ll write something on lessons relevant for our emerging Dodo Club.

The other night, however, my wife and I were in a rural area with little light pollution where we could look at the clear night sky and vast heavens. My wife was settled on a chair, hoping to see shooting stars from the Draconid meteor shower. She called me out at one point to ask if I could confirm that she was really seeing something bizarre and unusual in the sky (her eyesight isn’t great). And, indeed, there was a long line of some 20 quite bright, evenly-spaced lights moving relatively quickly in a dead straight line, They were not like airplane lights that flash as they pass overhead, and they began to disappear or disperse one-by-one as they reached a certain point overhead. I rushed to get my phone to see if I could read any relevant reports and, when I looked again, the phenomenon was over. Then we both saw a bright shooting star!

After a bit of internet searching I discovered this was a “Starlink trail” associated with the launch of small satellites by SpaceX. This is part of establishing global internet connectivity and is also covertly contributing to the cyber-capabilities of Ukrainian forces conducting operations in their war-torn country.

So, we witnessed both a man-made wonder in the night sky and a natural wonder!

I am reminded of the story of a former US president who used to take any powerful guests staying at the White House into the garden at night to look at the stars in silence. After about 10 minutes, this most powerful leader would say “I think we are small enough now, and can turn in for the night”.

I believe humility is a vital quality in good leaders, and should be nurtured.

In the presence of these two wonders, I certainly felt suitably small, and awed.

My Bi-Weekly Guide

Why a scenario/systems-thinking mindset is important

In my first newsletter a couple of weeks ago, I gave an overview of what makes up strong strategic character.

A scenario/system- thinking mindset was one of those elements and a very important aspect of strategic character.

Today I’d like to elaborate on scenario/system thinking and explain its five important features.

Five features in a scenario/systems-thinking mindset:

This mindset is one of the foundations for building strong strategic character. It comes from a deep appreciation of:

1. Scenario significance

Strong currents are continually shaping our environment, whether these are economic, political, social, environmental or technological.

Every current generates counter-currents, and it is impossible to tell in advance which will prove strongest, so alternative outcomes are always plausible. Ignoring this fundamental feature of reality is simply lazy.

2. The world is bigger than you

We are prisoners of our own experience and the narrow horizons we can see from our own place and time. We need to put in the effort to understand the world from alternative relevant perspectives to understand the range of possible choices people or groups might make that shape the future landscape.

We also need to explore the connections between activities that can amplify initially small developments by generating vicious or virtuous cycles.

3. Two crafts

In developing a scenario or systems perspective, attention is usually focused on the analytical craft of bringing together multiple inputs, making sense of them, and developing fresh insights. However, this exercise is relatively meaningless unless these insights come to life in the minds, hearts, choices and actions of people.

Achieving this is a social and psychological craft requiring deep attention. However, if it is going to be effective, this has to be approached with subtlety, so is often unnoticed and hence often ignored.

Neglecting this, however, is the reason why so many reports end up as forgotten books on shelves.

4. The learning perspective

You are both trying to learn yourself and trying to help others learn. People often say they are always open to learn but experience shows they dislike being “taught” so you need to create circumstances where people learn for themselves.

In addition, quoting the great economist John Maynard Keynes, “the difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping the old ones”. People learn when they are both in a relaxed state of mind and also engaged with a topic they believe to be important, so these are the circumstances you need to create.

5. The strategic conversation

While there may be individual accountability, major strategic decisions are generally the result of a group process with multiple contributions. This is a social process with individual decisions emerging from a permanently ongoing strategic conversation.

For wise choices, the scenario mindset needs to be deeply interweaved into this conversation. In this sense, while the scenario mindset is fundamental (see point 1) it is also secondary as it is a means to an end, and that end is wiser choices.

Question of The Fortnight

Every fortnight I’ll be asking a thought-provoking question in hopes of sparking interesting and enlightening discussion.

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

What are the benefits of your work and how might you make it more beneficial?

Join The Dodo Club

I’m building a community and, of course, it’s called The Dodo Club.

Why? Because we all want to avoid the fate of that unfortunate bird. And by sharing some of the insights I’ve picked up over my four decade long career - including as Head of the Shell Scenarios team - I’m going to help you do exactly that.

I am building a space where we can have interesting and enlightening discussions on relevant topics that can have genuine impact.

I plan to host live, interactive seminars, run forums on relevant topics, and create a bank of materials that can be drawn from in times of uncertainty.

We’re still in the early stages of building, but if this sounds like something that might interest you, I’d be honoured if you would sign up below: