A note from me

I hope you found something helpful and positive from the Special Edition Newsletter I recently produced in response to the horrifying events in and around Gaza.

Of course, heart-wrenching suffering continues in that region, as in Ukraine, and we must respond with compassion as best we can. Yet we must also continue with the rest of our lives. With that in mind, in this Newsletter I revert to our earlier exploration of strategic character.

In Edition 2 we looked briefly at the importance of scenario thinking while, in this Edition, I cover the basic steps in developing a scenario. I trust you will find this interesting and helpful.

Referring to scenarios reminds me that the term is often used in reference to film making. My wife and I love both theatre and film, and go to the cinema quite often. We are normally looking for something unusual and thought provoking, so regularly watch lower-budget, independently produced, non-English-language gems like “Petite Maman”. Some family and friends refuse to join us if we suggest watching what they disparagingly refer to as “Jeremy-and-Mary-type” films, a term which has become their shorthand for what they have found obscure, difficult or slow-moving!

While we are quite selective, we do go to mainstream films as well. In the last few weeks we have seen “Oppenheimer”, “Mission Impossible”, “A Haunting in Venice”, “The Creator” and “Killers of the Flower Moon”. The first and last of these dramatized historical events, the second two were fictional confections, and the third was an exploration of a dramatic and vaguely semi-plausible future state of the world.

All these films are in different genres, but I found them well made and successful within their genres. They largely held my attention, and any ludicrous elements were understandable or forgivable within the spirit of the whole. For me, the most artistically accomplished, as a work of film-making, was “Oppenheimer”, but I give all of them a score of 7 to 8 out of 10 on the “Jeremy” scale. If you watch “Oppenheimer”, the actor playing bongo-drums in the background in a couple of scenes is portraying Dick Feynman who went on to win a Nobel prize and taught me at Caltech!

I hope you find a nugget somewhere in this Newsletter that is as thought-provoking as these films!

5 Steps to Developing a Scenario

The mechanistic process for developing a scenario can be summarised in the basic steps outlined below. Of course, as highlighted in a previous Newsletter, this should be embedded in an ongoing process of strategic conversation as part of the understated social craft which brings fresh insights to life in the minds and actions of people. The areas of the future landscape that are to be explored by scenarios arise from these conversations and guide Step 1 below. Then, once Step 5 is completed, the new insights and scenarios should be re-integrated into the strategic conversation. The cycle can then be repeated again as necessary when new aspects of the landscape need to be explored.  

Step 1: Focal Question

Given the facets of the future landscape that you believe to be significant for the choices you are considering, formulate a specific focal question that captures the essence of your particular interests and whose answer can give critical guidance. For example, in a period of geopolitical tensions, if you are in a research institution that depends on funding from multiple international sources and delivers research activities across multiple fields, a suitable question may be:

“What significant geopolitical configurations and changes may develop over the next 10 years and how may these possible outcomes affect different research possibilities?”

Step 2: Driving Forces

In considering the focal question, identify the long-list of factors that can affect or shape the outcomes. It is often valuable to involve a group of people in this with multiple perspectives and different relevant areas of expertise, and request a few with high expertise in particular areas to give short presentations to “spark” further conversations. Consider each factor and assess its possible significance as a driving force and the level of uncertainty or ignorance around it.

Step 3: Critical Uncertainties

Map out the driving factors along the two dimensions from lower to higher significance and from lower to higher uncertainty/ignorance. This will help guide you towards the factors in the “top-right” of your mapping, i.e. those that are both highly significant and highly uncertain. These are the critical uncertainties that will work out differently in different scenarios and provide differentiation within the scenario suite you are aiming to define. The factors that are significant but more certain will be the relatively predetermined factors or trends appearing in each scenario

Step 4: Scenario Frameworks

Group conversation or individual deliberation around both the critical uncertainties and the predetermined factors, and how these interact, will generally lead you intuitively towards an understanding of different possible outcomes or scenarios. Alternatively, you can begin with a more mechanistic approach and choose two critical uncertainties, each with two possible extreme outcomes, giving you a matrix of four different outcomes. You can then consider how each outcome may come about, and whether that makes sense.

Step 5: Rich Scenarios

Taking the initial frameworks as a starting point, each potential scenario can be worked out in more depth and detail in terms of the pathway that could lead from where we are now to that point.  Quantification can be added as necessary or possible. Ideally, just two or three scenarios (and maximum four) should be used (and sufficient) to cover the most important factors.  This is important given the limited bandwidth of human beings and the aim of helping the insights come to life in the minds of people. It is also vital to find compelling titles for the scenarios that both reflect the key dynamics and stick in people’s minds. For example, people still talk to me about the “Scramble” and “Blueprints” scenarios I led the development of over 15 years ago.

Question of The Fortnight

Every fortnight I’ll be asking a thought-provoking question in hopes of sparking interesting and enlightening discussion.

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

In times of great uncertainty, what is important to you?

Join The Dodo Club

I’m building a community and, of course, it’s called The Dodo Club.

Why? Because we all want to avoid the fate of that unfortunate bird. And by sharing some of the insights I’ve picked up over my four decade long career - including as Head of the Shell Scenarios team - I’m going to help you do exactly that.

I am building a space where we can have interesting and enlightening discussions on relevant topics that can have genuine impact.

I plan to host live, interactive seminars, run forums on relevant topics, and create a bank of materials that can be drawn from in times of uncertainty.

We’re still in the early stages of building, but if this sounds like something that might interest you, I’d be honoured if you would sign up below: