The Dodo Club Newsletter – Special Edition - Gaza

Every now and then, there is a need to interrupt a pattern. In subsequent editions of this Newsletter I’ll revert to sharing perspectives on strategic character on a bi-weekly basis, focussing as always on scenario thinking and similar important topics. But sometimes events compel us to take immediate notice, to engage personally, and to step back to reflect on developments and what they can teach us.

While unimaginable misery is still being experienced in Ukraine, our news channels are now bringing us face to face with human devastation and suffering in and around Gaza. How can we begin to think about this conflict and make some sense of it? How can we help the many who are suffering and maintain hope for the future?

In this Newsletter, I share a short personal story followed by a brief video introducing one way to think about the future in these awful circumstances. I then consider what our scenario mindset may teach us and a few possible steps we might consider. As always, I encourage you to share your own perspectives.

A Personal Story

We fortunate souls in peaceful lands react with horror and anxiety at the unfolding deaths, destruction and misery in and around Gaza.

About twenty years ago, we hosted a couple of teenage girls at our home for several days. One was Israeli and the other was Palestinian. Neither had really spoken before to a member of the other community, but they had their youth in common and the fact they were both from Christian households. They were part of a group retreat organised by our church to encourage reconciliation.

The atmosphere sitting around the dinner table the night they arrived was pretty tense. We had invited a Dutch teenage girl, who was one of our friends, to join us to help break the ice.

After some silence, our young friend blurted out, “I don’t really understand all this, what exactly is Palestine? Is it a country or what?”. Immediately a loud “Yes!” and a loud “No!” rang out from the two girls, and a heated discussion ensued. At least the ice had been broken!

This could have been a disaster, but over the course of the next two weeks these girls all became close friends, staying in touch with one another, as they did with us “oldies”, in the years that followed. They found that, despite history, there was more that united them as young people with common hopes and fears than divided them politically.

Is there a lesson? I guess it is that common humanity can be recognised when the effort is taken to build safe opportunities for common experience. And also that the teenage mind can be oriented towards peace while it is still open and growing.

In these dark days, may these be helpful guides for the future?

A Personal Perspective on Events in a Scenario-Thinking Context:

This catastrophe has exploded into the world and we hold our heads in dismay and surprise, but those with a scenario mindset and vocabulary may recognise this as an “inevitable surprise” or, at least, a surprise which was to be reasonably expected.

Layers of tinder for this inferno have been building in recent years, and we have seen the woodpile expanding. The fire was set long before this past week; what was unknowable was exactly how and when a spark would ignite it.

The last two years have seen more violent incidents in the area than at any time since the ending of the second intifada in 2005/6. Living conditions in Gaza have been increasingly dire. There are currently deep social divisions in Israel and Iran, with hard-liners holding sway and seeking to bolster support. Leadership in Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza feel threatened by the US-brokered moves towards political normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The progress of the fire from here is unknowable – you can only think in terms of scenarios with different degrees of plausibility. There are several strong winds, with great potential for political miscalculation, that could fan the flames until they eventually engulf the entire region. Although there are also plenty of reasons for regional powers to try to douse the blaze eventually, they either fear internal instability or are ill-positioned for action.

What seems inevitable is that there will be incomprehensible human pain and misery. The fire has already consumed the lives of many ordinary people, just like you and me, and will continue to rage.

The Israeli leadership seems to be in a no-win situation. They sense a need to deploy massive force in order to reassure their population they can provide security in future and to deny Hamas their operational habitat, but their international and local reputation will be shredded by any suggestion of overreaction. I suspect they will almost certainly err on the side of decisive military action.

We, who are privileged to be at a safe distance, can only react with compassion, humanitarian aid, and support for long-term diplomatic efforts even after this story falls out of the news. It will take years to extinguish this particular fire and then remove the tinder priming the next predictable conflagration.

We can not, and must not, lose sight of the fact that suffering and grief will consume countless numbers of ordinary people. In the name of humanity, we must show compassion to everyone who is affected. Looking through the fog of pain, however, we should also recognise that a far-reaching battle for hearts and minds will take place. Some people will want us to fall into despair so they can justify their actions, but as onlookers, we must try to see beyond this.

There’s always more than one scenario. Seemingly irreconcilable and violent differences have been overcome before, such as with the Northern Ireland Agreement or the South African transition from vicious apartheid as aided by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

While the details of this current situation are rather different, we can still learn from these experiences and be encouraged. We can be agents with influence on future scenarios.

1. We can support immediate humanitarian efforts and put pressure on governments to negotiate the opening of humanitarian channels.

2. We can draw lessons from the Stockdale Paradox, remaining brutally honest about the current reality but also constructing credible possibilities for a brighter future.

3. We can learn from our personal experience with the teenagers, finding safe opportunities to bring young people together from different communities and financially supporting institutes like United World Colleges that are dedicated to this form of education.

4. We can support the development and spread of a new narrative, inspired by historical reconciliations, that maintains the prospect of some light at the end of this very dark tunnel ahead.

5. We can attend to other areas where tinder is building rather than allowing these situations to become “normalised” while we drift towards new conflagrations.

I hope this provides you with a few useful pointers.

Question of the Day

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

How can you help friends, family and colleagues draw constructive lessons from the current state of the world and act accordingly?

Join The Dodo Club

I’m building a community and, of course, it’s called The Dodo Club.

Why? Because we all want to avoid the fate of that unfortunate bird. And by sharing some of the insights I’ve picked up over my four decade long career - including as Head of the Shell Scenarios team - I’m going to help you do exactly that.

I am building a space where we can have interesting and enlightening discussions on relevant topics that can have genuine impact.

I plan to host live, interactive seminars, run forums on relevant topics, and create a bank of materials that can be drawn from in times of uncertainty.

We’re still in the early stages of building, but if this sounds like something that might interest you, I’d be honoured if you would sign up below: