A note from me

Hi Folks,

Events of potentially colossal geopolitical significance have rocked two different societies in the past couple of weeks and hit the international headlines.  

The President of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol, declared martial law in the country to the surprise of almost everyone. This was, however, quickly overturned by parliament and popular opposition. The President now faces impeachment. It appears that the governing, civil, democratic institutions in the company are proving resilient. 

Even more dramatically, in just a couple of weeks, a combination of various rebel groups has swept across Syria and overthrown the brutal governing Assad regime.

A framework introduced in Newsletter Edition 30, that draws on my Shell Scenario experience, helps me make sense of what has been happening.

The declaration in S. Korea represented an ‘Early Crisis’ in governing the country. It appears, however, that there has been sufficient social, institutional and financial capital to draw on to avoid the country slipping back into the type of military rule that the country emerged from in the 1980’s. We can hope that the government in South Korea continues to follow the ‘Room to Manoeuvre’ pathway through reforms that address current political tensions.

In contrast, the early crisis for the rule of Bashar al-Assad actually began in 2011 when popular discontent triggered large-scale protests and pro-democracy rallies across Syria, as part of the wider Arab Spring protests in the region. This morphed into a brutal, full-scale civil war in which the Assad regime eventually held on to power thanks to the support of regimes in Russia and Iran. For more than a decade, however, Syria has been in a ‘Trapped Transition’ in which it has been necessary to deploy brutal oppression to suppress discontent and opposition.  

In the meantime, various armed opposition groups have expanded and, more recently, the attention and resources of Russia and Iran have been eroded. So when the ‘Existential Crisis’ for Assad erupted a couple of weeks ago there was no remaining resilience and the regime collapsed almost overnight. We can only hope now that Syrian society is able to, ‘write-off and reset’ peacefully rather than descend into the type of violent chaos that has characterised the periods following the relatively recent overthrow of regimes in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan.  

Can stresses and disruptions ultimately strengthen rather than weaken societies, organisations or individuals? This is the idea of Antifragility explored in this edition of the Newsletter, which is part of a series of editions on the subject of resilience.

I hope you find these materials enjoyable and that they help you build your own personal or organisational resilience!

My Bi-Weekly Guide

Anti-fragility (and Art)

I attended a lecture on women artists in the Baroque period, when it was almost impossible for a woman to get trained or be taken seriously as an artist (as has remained the case until relatively recently). In this, I learned about the powerfully expressive painter Artemisia Gentileschi, who, when still a teenager, was raped by a male artist meant to be encouraging her art. Her father eventually pressed charges, but for the damage to his honour more than the assault on Artemisia, and it was only she who was subjected to physical torture as the court tested whether her testimony was true.  

This teenage trauma must obviously have affected Artemisia, on top of the regular challenges for a woman seeking professional success at that time. Yet she went on to become a very accomplished and successful artist, receiving commissions from major patrons including royalty. She became the first woman to enter the Academy of Art and Design in Florence.  

Her awful early experiences seem to have strengthened her impressive resolve on top of her outstanding talents, and quite probably informed some of her subject choices or the way she has treated the topics commissioned by her patrons. For example, her treatment of Judith Beheading Holofernes, which I have seen at the Uffizi gallery in Florence, is a masterpiece portraying the death of a male tyrant at the hands of physically powerful women. 

In his recent book, Antifragile, Nassim Nicholas Taleb has promoted the idea that, unlike fragile items that break when put under stress, antifragile items actually benefit from volatility and shock.  Artemisia’s rape cannot in any sense be considered some kind of ‘benefit’, but her reaction to the suffering could, perhaps, be seen in her considerable strength of character. She seems to have demonstrated aspects of ‘antifragility’.  

More generally, I believe it is useful to reflect on the following 5 features of antifragility for organisations. Not surprisingly, there is considerable overlap with the different characteristics of Resilience highlighted in the previous 4 Newsletters.

1. Learning and self-improvement: 

   The capacity to learn from volatile circumstances and stresses on an organisation, and adapt accordingly, is a strength that can drive a virtuous cycle. More learning becomes a platform for additional learning. The Learning Ethos has been covered extensively in Newsletter Edition 27.

2. Over-compensation:
   Stresses stimulate reactions intended to mitigate them. This attention and investment can strengthen an organisation beyond just balancing the initial strains. This has similarities with the way a good exercise regime can not only heal a damaged muscle but also ultimately build strength beyond the initial starting point.
   

3. Fragile components:
   Having aspects of a system that can, and do, fail provides opportunities for both learning and also protecting stronger elements of the system. In the wild, the evolutionary process ultimately results in organisms that are stronger and better adapted to their circumstances. The loss of a few weaker elements in a herd of animals protects others from predators.
   

4. Complexity:
   Being embedded in a complex environment provides multiple challenges to learn from and enhance strengths. Internal complexity can provide multiple nodes for learning and present both stronger and weaker aspects to the world, with successes and failures becoming additional sources for learning and strengthening.
   

5. Option-generation and Minimising Maximum Regrets (MMR):
   Organisations that operate activities and generate opportunities possessing the character of financial options tend to demonstrate antifragility. Financial options enable investors to benefit from the upside of volatile developments while protecting them from the downside. This is valuable so naturally comes at a cost, but this structure enables organisations to minimise the regret of being hit with the downside while also minimising the regret of missing the upside opportunity. 
   
   Newsletter Edition 11 includes perspectives on personal MMR and learning.

Question of The Fortnight

Every fortnight I’ll be asking a thought-provoking question in hopes of sparking interesting and enlightening discussion.

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

Do you believe that the notion of ‘Antifragility’ introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is valuable and adds something new to the way we think about resilience? What organisations or individuals are you aware of that exhibit antifragility?

An opportunity for you to do some more learning:

If you would like to learn more about the kinds of topics covered in these newsletters, then consider signing up to the introductory Dodo Club Online Course. This covers scenario/systems thinking for grappling with uncertainty, an introduction to energy transitions, and the development of strategic character in leadership.

A series of follow-up courses that treat the main topics in increasing detail will be provided if there is sufficient interest.

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