A note from me

Hi Folks,

I hope you’ve had a fine start to 2025, along with your loved ones. I don’t know whether it’s a normal Dutch thing, but one of my friends wished me “happy surprises” in the new year which I thought was cute and unusual. So I wish you happy surprises as well!

Happy surprises would contrast dramatically with the awful surprise that is affecting hundreds of thousands of residents in California as I write.  The fires now burning through Los Angeles are already the worst in the history of California, a state known for its wildfires. News of fatalities, evacuations, loss of property, grief, terror and heroism flash across our screens and newsfeeds every hour.

I live almost 10,000 km from Los Angeles but a personal connection brings this event closer to my heart than many others. Our younger daughter lives in LA, almost exactly half-way between the two largest fires, and she can see the conflagration from her balcony. She hasn’t had to evacuate yet and hopefully will not need to, but she has close friends who have lost their homes and both her anxiety and frustration are high. She is a trained emergency medical responder who longs to be out helping people, but needs to use a wheelchair at present following multiple painful operations. She’s helped on the frontline of wildfires in the past, but she’s currently stuck at home, watching from the balcony (which you can see below), and worrying like everyone else.  

Emergency responses contribute to one layer of resilience but, after we are past the current catastrophe, serious attention in LA must be given to additional layers of resilience as outlined in previous editions of the Dodo Club Newsletter (see Newsletter 28th Edition and subsequent editions). There will need to be attention to multiple connected systems (e.g. urban planning, water systems, building codes, land management, insurance) as well as a recognition of the broader transformations required to counter growing threats from turbulent weather driven by broader climate changes. It seems that deeper cycles of wet and dry weather first stimulated unusually high growth of vegetation in the area and then turned this into tinder ready to be ignited.  

The calamity was brought home further to me when I read that an area in Pasadena (part of the LA conurbation) was being evacuated up to the road North Sierra Bonita. I actually lived on that street when I was a student at the renowned California Institute of Technology (Caltech), just a few blocks further away. I remember seeing the occasional wildfire up in the mountains at the end of summer, too small and too far away to do any damage or worry about. But, I guess, in the decades since then, housing has spread further and further into the hills, weather patterns have steadily intensified and the wildfire risk season has extended across the whole year. On reflection, this “surprise” was actually a predictable disaster. The remaining surprise was simply, “when?”.  

Actually, this now reminds me again of Daniel Kahneman’s well-known insight into behaviour that, generally speaking, “what we see is all there is” (e.g. refer to Thinking Fast and Slow).  We haven’t seen such a major blaze across the city in our lifetimes, so we have discounted the growing pressures making it ever more likely. Considering other relatively recent events that I’ve also commented on, the same could be said about Russia’s war on Ukraine and the tragic Israeli-Palestine conflict in Gaza. There are similarities in the patterns of drift and then eruption. Where else is tinder steadily building that will erupt in a conflagration at some point, and what can we do to avert this?

So, I’m also reminded of another potential disaster looming in California. The state is an earthquake zone but, hopefully, building standards have diminished the amount of damage to be expected from anything but a very large event. However, I met my future wife when she was a research assistant in the seismology department at Caltech and had seen a map of all the major faults in California overlaid with the positions of public schools and hospitals. These were largely positioned right along the faults, presumably because land was cheaper there and public budgets were limited. So, unless this has changed in the intervening years, when the “big one” comes, children and the most vulnerable in society will suffer disproportionately. Is this the next “predictable surprise”?

This also raises questions about how we think about “Common Good” – the topic of our current series of Newsletters. So, in this Newsletter, I’ll focus a little attention on the Constitution of the United States, and the assumptions underlying its form, as a long-standing framework for delivering common good while respecting individual rights.

I hope you find these materials enjoyable and that they help you enrich your own personal or organisational perspectives on building The Common Good!

My Bi-Weekly Guide

The Common Good (Part 2)

How we organise and conduct our collective lives shapes the quality of our individual lives and the society we enjoy. It decisively shapes the development of common goods within our societies. Our organising principles are expressed in the constitutions of our societies. The United States has the longest-running democracy in history, and many countries around the world have used its constitution as their model. The US Constitution was signed in 1787 in Independence Hall in Philadelphia as depicted in this painting by Howard Chandler Christy.

This work of art is truly monumental – the frame measures 6 by 9 metres! It is displayed in the U.S. House of Representatives and was commissioned in 1937 as part of the 150-year anniversary of the signing. It was completed in 1940.

To my eye, it succeeds in managing to draw the eye to three main focal points on the right and in the centre, with a balancing weight of figures on the viewer’s left. On the right, standing erect on the dais, with attention also drawn to him by lighting and the balancing gestures of figures on the left, is George Washington - the “father of the nation”. This also brings attention to the act of signing taking place and the flags. The highlighted cluster of figures seated in the lower centre are significant thought-leaders and contributors to the principles in the constitution – Benjamin Franklin, James Madison and Alexander Hamilton. Standing behind them in the very centre of the painting and wearing a red coat to catch the eye is William Jackson – the Secretary of the proceedings – who is holding up his fingers to show that votes are being counted. In this way, the event is celebrated along with key figures and key principles.

That base Constitution, along with the soon-after agreed first 10 Amendments that form the so-called Bill of Rights, have proved a pragmatic and resilient platform for channeling self-interest into productive consensus. It enabled the United States to emerge from the squabbling collection of separate States that secured independence from the British Empire, and to retain integrity and prosper despite Civil War, two World Wars and multiple social upheavals. It empowered the nation to navigate a path that avoided monarch-like dictatorship, mob-rule and consensus-seeking paralysis.  

Its development, characteristics and recent challenges are covered in the excellent book The Genius of America by Eric Lane and Michael Oreskes. Their inspiration for writing the book was the warning from the originators of the Constitution that the most likely undoing of democracy would be in the name of more “democracy”. They saw the danger of diluting the separation of powers through moves that concentrated influence in the hands of only the President, and also the danger of instituting excessive mass “referenda” that reflect only majority sentiment at a single moment in time. Recent US Presidential elections and Brexit in the UK have reflected such challenges.

The book asserts that, for the framers of the US Constitution, “the only meaningful definition of the common good would be the agreements that emerged from an inclusive political and legislative process to resolve competing interests. They boiled their experience down to a Constitution. We have boiled their experience down to five lessons”.  I believe these lessons will be helpful for us all as we explore more angles on the common good in these Newsletters and in our individual circumstances.

These are summarised in the 5 points below.

1. Everyone is selfish: 

   People essentially act in their own self-interest even though they may be altruistic on occasion. They are, however, willing to trade one benefit for another and sometimes sacrifice a narrow interest for a broader one if they feel this will ultimately bring them more good.  

2. Government is the steam valve of society:
   Government channels and relieves the pressures arising from competing interests.
   

3. Political process is more important than outcome:
   Agreement around a flawed plan can still bring great progress, while deadlock around a “perfect” plan takes you nowhere. 
   

4. The strength of consensus is directly related to the breadth of representation and the depth of deliberation:
   A sound-bite society without civic education has little basis for forging strong consensus. This is obviously a growing challenge in this age of social media, algorithm-driven news “bubbles” and shortening attention spans.
   

5. Every interest is a “special” one: 
   Groups and factions inevitably emerge as individual wants and desires forge alignments, so this dynamic must be both respected and yet incorporated into political process in ways that do not undermine deeper constitutional principles.

Question of The Fortnight

Every fortnight I’ll be asking a thought-provoking question in hopes of sparking interesting and enlightening discussion.

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

Like me, have you previously neglected thinking deeply about how democratic impulses can be practically operationalised in a robust constitutional system that is just, spurs progress, generates common goods, and protects minorities?  What do you think of the five lessons above?

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If you would like to learn more about the kinds of topics covered in these Newsletters, then consider signing up to the introductory Dodo Club online Course.  This covers scenario/systems thinking for grappling with uncertainty, an introduction to energy transitions, and the development of strategic character in leadership.

A series of follow-up courses that treat the main topics in increasing detail will be provided if there is sufficient interest.

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