A note from me

Hi Folks,

It has been a busy few days. As a late stand-in, I was asked to give a keynote address and join a panel for the St. Andrews Summit at that excellent university in Scotland. This is designed as an in-person event, but I had to participate virtually from The Hague. I always try to support educational institutions and young people as best I can when opportunities arise, particularly around topics focused on promoting better lives for people with a healthy planet, so I took good time in preparing my address.  I also enjoyed interacting with other speakers and the audience in the panel discussion, though it must have looked a bit strange having a panel of three persons in the auditorium plus a large TV screen! 

We also went to see the Oscar-winning animation film “Flow”. This was very gentle, but always engaging. It had wonderful animation, excellent cinematography and a mesmerising soundscape, without dialogue. There was a simple tale that children could follow and enjoy, but it raised enough questions and allusions to encourage adults to wonder thoughtfully afterwards. Was there a representation of different human responses to climate change – a shift from a narrow self-interest to a recognition of commonality with others? Was there an exploration of affiliation through lived experience and relationships versus through physical similarities? If you have seen “The Red Turtle”, I found this a similarly intriguing animation.   

I give the film an 8 out of 10 on the Jeremy scale!  

This Newsletter continues to build on threads we have explored previously that aim to help you in building a better life for yourself and the people around you, with a healthy planet, despite the current socio-political disruptions across the world. I hope you continue to find these Newsletters enjoyable and that they help you enrich your own personal or organisational perspectives.

I am very pleased to announce that the second episode of The Dodo Club Podcast is now live. This is a fascinating conversation with the brilliant Marius Oosthuizen. We go into depth discussing his journey with foresight and scenario thinking, lessons learnt from previous iconic scenarios, and complete a world tour of some of the underlying ideas at play in global geopolitics today.

You can follow the link below to view on YouTube or you can also listen on Spotify here, I thoroughly enjoyed this one!

Episode 2 - Dr. Marius Oosthuizen

I am also pleased to remind you that the Dodo Club Online Course is now also available on the Udemy platform. The course covers scenario/systems thinking for grappling with uncertainty, an introduction to energy transitions, and the development of strategic character in leadership. My hope is to make it accessible for all those looking to take active steps to improve their personal understanding of these issues.

You can find the link to access the course at the bottom of this Newsletter or through the link attached below:

The Dodo Club Online Course

My Bi-Weekly Guide

The 5 Factors Underlying Change (and Art)

In the previous Newsletter, I noted that most people currently sense a need for change at some level in our increasingly troubled world. Some years ago, I summarised my insights of relevance to this in a “Dynamics of Change” model that I find helpful. This is a 3-layered model which builds from a description of the basic underlying dynamics up to the inhibiting factors and then finally the facilitating factors that can unleash deep-rooted change. We actually began with a summary of the main building blocks for facilitating change that can build a better communal life. These reflect themes of Common Goods, Resilience and Collaboration from several previous Newsletters. In this Newsletter, we consider the layer of the basic underlying dynamics of the model, before subsequent Newsletters turn attention to Inhibitors and Facilitators. My interest in Art History can furnish an illustration. One of my favourite Baroque-period artists is Artemisia Gentileschi. There are many stories to be told about her life, the struggles of being a woman artist in a patriarchal profession, her resilience and her successes. These topics were raised in a previous Newsletter on Anti-Fragility, also along with a reproduction of the following great painting. I have chosen to reproduce this painting again, but this time with the focus on the subject matter itself. The subject is “Judith Beheading Holofernes”. I’ve been fortunate to see this painting in the Uffizi Gallery in Florence, Italy. Gentileschi also painted an earlier version of this subject, which is in the Museo Capodimonte, Naples.

Judith and her maidservant are beheading the Assyrian general Holofernes, which freed the city of Bethulia from siege by Nebuchadnezzar's army. The painting is a masterwork in its portrayal of physicality, action and dramatic use of light and dark.

In terms of the more prosaic points on the “dynamics of change” illustrated below, Judith was aware of a gap between her desired situation and the actual state of the world, which generated anxiety and a search for a new path to engage in the situation –in this case using her femininity to encourage Holofernes to invite her to a private banquet where she could get him drunk. Then, when he was drunk and semi-conscious, she decapitated him. The assassination of Holofernes led to the defeat of his army, which closed the gap between her desired, and the actual, state of the world.

This is a simple model with the following 5 factors underlying the process of change:

1. The Recognition of Desired Conditions

   There needs to be a view on what would be a desirable state for the relevant conditions in the world. Of course, different perspectives may bring different views on this, and there needs to be some alignment if collective action is going to be possible, which is one of the reasons that “pluralism” was one of the building block factors identified in the previous Newsletter.

2. A Gap Between Desired and Actual Conditions

   The driving force for change is the GAP between “what actually is” and “what is desired”.

   In psychological terms, this creates…

3. Anxiety or Cognitive Dissonance

   This is an uncomfortable sense in the hearts and minds of actors in the system that “the world isn’t as it should be”. The greater the GAP, the greater the anxiety.

   This motivates…

4. The Generation of Innovative Approaches

   The sense of “something needs to change” spurs the search for new or modified approaches that can affect the status quo.

   The greater the anxiety, the greater and deeper the search, which creates new options for action and the…

5. Implementation of chosen approaches to close the GAP

   Choosing and implementing the preferred options for driving real-world conditions in the desired directions ultimately closes the GAP. A new and more desirable equilibrium is eventually achieved.

In the coming Newsletter, we’ll examine both the factors for inhibiting change that this straightforward model suggests, and how these may be overcome.

Question of The Fortnight

Every fortnight I’ll be asking a thought-provoking question in hopes of sparking interesting and enlightening discussion.

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

In your mind, how valuable might this simple model be as a starting point for thinking about change processes, particularly when supplemented consistently by the inhibiting and facilitating factors it suggests?

The Dodo Club Online Course

The Dodo Club is Waiting!

The Dodo Club is my online course which has been built for collaboration, learning and mutual support.

In the interest of avoiding the fate of that unfortunate bird, the Dodo, this course aims to help us secure our own personal legacies within scenario planning and the energy transition - and to leave a healthier planet for future generations.

You can access the course through Udemy using the link below!

You can also follow me on LinkedIn where I host webinars, Q&A sessions and provide weekly posts discussing some of the most pressing issues of today.

To be a part of the discussion and to have your voice heard, please do follow along below!