A note from me

Hi Folks,

I’m writing this newsletter from a hotel room in Florence. Mary and I are visiting for a few days because of some work I’m doing, and we’ll also take the opportunity to visit — and revisit — some of the captivating Renaissance art and architecture here.

Our hotel has a stunning view of the Duomo and the astonishing dome designed and engineered by Brunelleschi. Completed in 1436, it is still the largest masonry dome ever built. It weighs about 25,000 tonnes and, amazingly, was built in only 16 years — at the end of almost 150 years spent constructing the whole cathedral. It is a testament to what people can achieve when they work together with purpose and draw upon the resources of their community.

In the photograph below, taken from our hotel, you can see Giotto’s bell tower as well as the dome.

Florence, at the time, was one of the most powerful and wealthy cities in the world, and the crucible from which many innovations in Renaissance art and architecture emerged. A series of other innovations also changed society in significant ways — for example, the Medici family established the Medici Bank and was instrumental in popularising the double-entry bookkeeping system, which remains a cornerstone of accounting practices today. The wonderful Ospedale degli Innocenti has provided care for infants and children continuously for more than five centuries, demonstrating in practical ways the evolving humanistic views of the early Renaissance.

This newsletter continues to build on threads we have explored previously, aimed at helping you build a better life for yourself and the people around you — despite the current socio-political disruptions across the world. I hope you continue to find these newsletters enjoyable and that they help you enrich your own personal or organisational perspectives.

I’m also pleased to remind you that the Dodo Club Online Course is now available on the Udemy platform. The course covers scenario and systems thinking for grappling with uncertainty, an introduction to energy transitions, and the development of strategic character in leadership. My hope is to make it accessible to all those looking to take active steps to improve their personal understanding of these issues.

My Bi-Weekly Guide

5 Reflections on the Dynamics of current U.S. Developments

This newsletter is being written as the global economy reels from both the direct impact and also the uncertainties stemming from the actions of the current U.S. administration to impose (and keep changing) major tariffs on almost all imports, thereby overturning decades of progress and benefits from increasing free trade.

This is compounded by other dramatic changes in U.S. foreign affairs, such as the stance towards the war in Ukraine, NATO, Gaza, the Paris Climate Agreement, and the provision of USAid. At the same time, huge domestic attention has been directed towards slashing the resources, capabilities and services of multiple federal agencies, stopping the flow of immigrants into the U.S., and reducing women’s reproductive choices.

These actions have brought many disruptions and rapidly accomplished a number of changes. They have stimulated much controversy and opposition, but the core voting base of the current administration — and the financial backers that have funded it — remain generally supportive.

Where will things go from here? These developments affect all of us, one way or another.

Previous newsletters covering scenario thinking emphasise that we cannot know in advance which of these types of currents or counter-currents will prove stronger, so alternative outcomes are always plausible. However, this is an opportunity for us to take a brief look at the situation through lenses on the dynamics of change that we have considered in recent newsletters. Even just preliminary attention highlights, at least, particular things to look out for.

Alongside the immediate, but fragmentary, changes that have been able to be pushed through as a consequence of direct presidential power, there seems to be a bigger, long-term agenda of change at play here. The aim appears to be changing the practical norms of the separation of powers inherent in the U.S. Constitution in ways that amplify the power of the executive wing led by the President, and reshape arrangements to the benefit of the current administration and its backers.

Let’s take a look at the situation via the dynamics of change model developed in the past three newsletters (illustrated below), and particularly the change enablers considered in the last newsletter.

Classes of Enabling Actions:

1. Action to set and maintain standards
The administration established well-publicised expectations in a number of individual areas, such as major reductions in border crossings, the imposition of tariffs, and cutting foreign humanitarian aid. It is undeniable that such changes have already been accomplished. It has also targeted other particular areas and loudly insists that progress is being made in these, even when this is arguable. There are, however, no standards being set that can be directly related to the apparent longer-term agenda suggested above, as this would undoubtedly both stimulate and also consolidate opposition.

2. Action to realise quick wins
A number of quick wins have already been accomplished, as noted above, which assures the backers of the administration and currently sustains their confidence. There is no doubt that some things have been changed. However, it is questionable whether momentum and the flow of quick wins can be sustained for long, given the complex nature of other economic objectives proclaimed by the President — such as reducing inflation, boosting economic growth and jobs, and cutting the federal budget. Will it be possible for the White House to cherry-pick and proclaim sufficient individual items to sustain confidence?

3. Action to build options, collaboration, and economic, political, and social capital
One of the main inhibiting factors this group of enabling actions is intended to address is a lack of innovation that can propel change. Again, there is no doubt that an innovative agenda is being pursued. Think tanks such as The Heritage Foundation have spent several years developing policy agendas that the Executive is now putting into action. Ways of subverting constitutional norms have been established. For example, while Congress constitutionally has the sole authority to levy taxes, including tariffs, there is national security legislation now being used by the Executive to impose tariffs unilaterally.

However, a key purpose of this group of actions is also to overcome potential opposition or resistance to change. Politically, the country is so divided that there is huge potential to resist further changes if the opposition can be sufficiently aligned and resourced to be effective. The midterm elections at the end of 2026 will be a major indicator.

4. Action to minimise initial costs and promote persistence
Cementing long-term change in place is a long game. Quick wins are a part of this, but before long the economic costs of the actions being taken are going to become apparent. The postulated future benefits of the current moves — in terms of, for example, re-building a thriving manufacturing sector in the US with associated jobs for US citizens — would take years to come to fruition (even if this were possible).

In the meantime, the economic disadvantages resulting from current actions — in terms of higher domestic costs for US families, weakening currency, and depressed financial market performance (with knock-on effects on pensions) — will affect most Americans, including the backers of the current administration. Will the Executive be able to persist with its change agenda as these short-term costs potentially dissipate support and fuel opposition?

5. Building blocks for a better communal life
The underlying characteristics associated with deep-seated, long-lasting changes in society highlighted previously were Pluralism, Innovation, Realistic Optimism, Fairness, and Learning/Future Orientations. Current developments exhibit a very mixed picture in this regard.

There is very little evidence of pluralism in the current administration. Change is being driven through the support of a particular sector of the electorate and the interests of particular financial backers. There is little attempt currently to absorb or co-opt the perspectives of other sectors. Might this happen later?

As noted above, there is real socio-political innovation at play in the political and policy agendas of this administration. However, have all the low-hanging fruit already been picked, and will there be innovative ways found to address the mounting challenges?

Quick wins are currently sustaining optimism, but is it realistic for this to be maintained going forward? Potential organised opposition to the administration’s agenda has been completely wrong-footed by the speed at which changes have been made so far, but will it regroup and be fuelled by the inevitable disappointments on the horizon?

The question of “fairness” is a major one. Outside of the core backers of the administration, few would claim that the bulk of the recent changes are “fair” to those outside those core sectors of society. Some of those core backers will also begin to feel more and more like developments are unfair as they experience the costs resulting from the changes that have been made. Will U.S. society be able to tolerate the ever-more apparent veneer of unfairness that is colouring it, or will there be a socio-political reversal?

Is there a learning orientation in the current administration that will enable it to learn from failures as well as successes and to adapt nimbly to challenges ahead without over-reliance on the formulae that got it elected? Or is there a growing echo chamber of “groupthink” driven by the personal opinions and power of the President?

In summary, there are understandable reasons why substantive changes have been successfully accomplished by the current U.S. administration so far. However, there are also many question marks around whether the longer-term change objectives will be accomplished — or even how far current shifts will be maintained.

The main challenge may be the mismatch in timescales between the negative short- to medium-term impacts of the currently perceived “quick wins” and both the postulated longer-term economic benefits and the apparent longer-term constitutional objectives of this administration. Will the current regime be able to maintain momentum over a prolonged period or run out of steam?

Nevertheless, it is unlikely the changes already put in place will be completely reversed, now that the landscape has changed — especially given the inherent difficulties of any “change-back” process. I doubt, for example, that the business supply chain shifts driven by the new tariffs will be unravelled, or that free trade will flourish again in the foreseeable future.

Perhaps this Dynamics of Change framework will prove useful to those considering this?

An opportunity for you to learn more:
If you would like to learn more about the kinds of topics covered in these newsletters, then please consider signing up to the introductory Dodo Club Online Course. This covers scenario/systems thinking for grappling with uncertainty, an introduction to energy transitions, and the development of strategic character in leadership.

In the interest of avoiding the fate of that unfortunate bird, the dodo, this course aims to help us secure our own personal legacies within a changing world and the energy transition — and to leave a healthier planet for future generations.

You can access the course through Udemy using the link below!
Go to Course

A series of follow-up courses that treat the main topics in increasing depth and detail will be provided if there is sufficient interest.

Question of The Fortnight

Every fortnight I’ll be asking a thought-provoking question in hopes of sparking interesting and enlightening discussion.

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

Have you found the Dynamics of Change framework useful?
Has it helped you make sense of complex issues like the current U.S. administration’s change agenda — or other major shifts happening globally?

The Dodo Club Online Course

The Dodo Club is Waiting!

The Dodo Club is my online course which has been built for collaboration, learning and mutual support.

In the interest of avoiding the fate of that unfortunate bird, the Dodo, this course aims to help us secure our own personal legacies within scenario planning and the energy transition - and to leave a healthier planet for future generations.

You can access the course through Udemy using the link below!

You can also follow me on LinkedIn where I host webinars, Q&A sessions and provide weekly posts discussing some of the most pressing issues of today.

To be a part of the discussion and to have your voice heard, please do follow along below!