A note from me

Hi Folks,

I’m writing from back home in The Hague after quite an eventful couple of weeks since the last Newsletter. Following the Climate Technology event I helped lead in Florence, Mary and I spent a couple of days absorbing the art, architecture and food of that beautiful city. Last week, I gave a number of presentations on scenario-thinking and energy transitions before heading to Everton’s last game at Goodison Park, the club’s home since 1892.

I also went to a wonderful production of “Hamilton” while I was in Liverpool and, no doubt, I’ll refer to all these experiences at some point in subsequent Newsletters. In this edition, however, I just want to reflect briefly on a film I went to see last week.

“Ocean with David Attenborough” is an astonishing and important documentary featuring the 99-year-old naturalist’s lifetime of lessons from immersion in the complex systems of marine life and observations of the damage inflicted on them by human activities like bottom trawling. The film combines cutting-edge scientific understanding with astounding visuals of both vibrant life and heart-wrenching devastation at industrial scales. The footage makes you feel almost like you are witnessing murder, even genocide.

All this is taking place below the surface of what we can normally observe, so the awareness of most of us is, frankly, zero. We just don’t see it and, as behavioural economist Dan Kahneman has noted – we act as though “What we see is all there is”.

You will know that I focus strongly on systems for decarbonising our economy to prevent the relentless build-up of emissions causing climate shifts that will eventually bring harm to everyone. I have long considered that one of the early signals of devastating change will come through the depletion of fish stocks that billions of people depend on. Ocean acidification will prevent the formation of key links in marine food chains and rising sea temperatures will drive migrations.

Looking beyond threats to possibilities, however, I know that one of the five building blocks for achieving net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases is carbon removal (e.g. see Newsletter Edition 17). Natural mechanisms like reforestation are vitally important for this. More recently, I also learned of the significant contribution that can be made through less obvious developments like soil quality regeneration. Now, through this film, I am alerted to paying more attention to another area I’ve neglected – the regeneration of aquatic life and the health of our oceans. After all, 70% of our planet is covered by water and the ocean holds 60 times more carbon than the atmosphere and already absorbs almost 30% of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from human activities.

With appropriate attention, could our oceans and aquatic systems become even more significant in reducing greenhouse gases in our atmosphere? I will need to study this possibility further, but Attenborough highlights how he has been astonished at how quickly large marine environments can regenerate once even small areas are protected.

The possibility of explosive growth, as well as collapse, is in the nature of complex systems, which is why I’m turning attention to this topic in this Newsletter. I’ll share more on this with you as I learn more myself.
But could this, indeed, be a neglected leverage point for tackling essentially the biggest underlying and growing global threat of our era? Still remarkably robust and compelling at 99, is Attenborough right when he asserts the following?

“If we save the sea, we save our world.”
I have a feeling that he may be.

This Newsletter continues to build on threads we have explored previously aimed at helping you build a better life for yourself and the people around you despite the current socio-political disruptions across the world. I hope you continue to find these Newsletters enjoyable and that they help you enrich your own personal or organisational perspectives.

I am also pleased to remind you that the Dodo Club Online Course is now also available on the Udemy platform. The course covers scenario/systems thinking for grappling with uncertainty, an introduction to energy transitions, and the development of strategic character in leadership. My hope is to make it accessible for all those looking to take active steps to improve their personal understanding of these issues.

You can find the link to access the course at the bottom of this Newsletter or through the link attached below:

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The Importance of Strategic Character and How to Build It

5 Features of Complex Systems

We remain vaguely aware, however, that component parts are rarely the whole picture. New, and sometimes unpredictable, properties and behaviours emerge from the interactions and relationships between parts. My Everton shirt is blue, but there is nothing at the material’s individual atomic component level that you could call “blue”. The colour in my perception arises from the interaction of photons of light with those atoms and molecules, and the impact of reflected photons on the retina of my eye followed by subsequent processing of the resulting electric signals by my brain. And there is certainly no “Everton-ness” in the material’s atomic constituents! These are all emergent properties arising from complex systems.

Sometimes we are alerted to this by artists. The works of Jackson Pollock, for example, may just seem like drips and splashes of paint at one level, but they evoke particular emotions, dynamic impressions and aesthetic pleasures in many viewers when a painting is appreciated as a whole. The artistry isn’t in the component parts but in experiencing the whole. A good example of this is his work Convergence, painted in 1952, which can be found in the Buffalo AKG Art Museum in the United States.

A science of “complexity” has built up over recent decades aimed at improving our ability to understand the properties of complex systems and enhance our abilities to engage effectively with them. The word derives from the Latin word plexus meaning “a braid”, which conveys the notion of multiple parts that can come together in different ways that can look and behave very differently depending on the nature of the braid.

For many years, I have been involved in scenario- and systems-thinking, which are related approaches to considering complex systems. I have also found insights arising directly from more generic complexity analysis techniques insightful in some of my work, such as looking at food, water and energy security. I’ll highlight this in a subsequent edition of the Newsletter. A former colleague, Roland Kupers, has focused on applied complexity science over the past decades and you can benefit from his insights in books like Complexity and the Art of Public Policy.

As a starting point, I’ll outline my perspective on what I believe to be some of the key features to be aware of in considering complex systems:

5 Features of many Complex Systems:

1. Emergent Properties
   As noted in the previous example of my blue Everton shirt, many properties of complex systems arise from the relations and interactions between component parts rather than being inherent in the components themselves. Hence a reductionist analytical approach which concentrates mainly on the components will not surface an understanding of key features. For example, societies are composed of people but human biology will tell you little about how and why life in rural Sweden differs from life in New York.

2. Non-linear behaviours
   Simple systems behave in predictable ways, but complex systems can be very different. For example, they may be predictable or stable until a particular condition leads to explosive or chaotic change. Starting, perhaps, from hundreds of factors, we can use complexity science to identify those that truly act as leverage points, i.e. areas where a shift could cascade into much larger change.

3. Can be usefully represented as a network
   As there is a particular emphasis on the relationships between the component parts of a system, then a graphical representation as a network can be effective and reveal important properties. For example, the recent conclave to elect the new pope felt almost opaque, steeped in ritual, secrecy, and centuries of tradition. But a network map using connection data – cardinal affiliations and influence – highlighted which individuals were most likely to shape the outcome. Looking at this graphic, sure enough, the most connected individual (visualised by the size of the relevant circle) is the man who went on to be elected Pope. Of course, this outcome wasn’t inevitable, but the network analysis highlights the cardinals most likely to shape the outcome.

   

4. Averages are not helpful
   Simpler systems with multiple components generally follow familiar Gaussian (bell-curve) statistics in which measurable properties like averages reveal meaningful characteristics of the system. However, this is not usually the case with complex systems where, for example, an outlying “far from average” actor may be connected to other actors in ways that significantly shape system properties. For example, in considering the spread of disease, addressing any “super-spreaders” can be much more significant than policies aimed at the general population steered by an assessment of the average number of people that one infected person will infect.

5. Shortest description is itself
   The most important characteristics of a simple system can be characterised by a limited number of factors that enable its behaviour to be described and subsequently predicted (e.g. the motions of the planets in the solar system). A complex system can’t be simplified in this way. The only way “to see what happens” is to “see what happens”! Modern computational powers can help when, for example, a network mapping can be described alongside a description of the behaviour of individual components. But still, even the behaviour of this simplified representation of the system can only be described by “playing it out”, e.g. John Conway’s Game of Life, and small variations can make things play out in qualitatively very different ways.

An opportunity to learn more:

If you would like to learn more about the kinds of topics covered in these Newsletters, then please consider signing up to the introductory Dodo Club Online Course. This covers scenario/systems thinking for grappling with uncertainty, an introduction to energy transitions, and the development of strategic character in leadership.

In the interest of avoiding the fate of that unfortunate bird, the Dodo, this course aims to help us secure our own personal legacies within a changing world and the energy transition – and to leave a healthier planet for future generations.

You can access the course through Udemy using the link below!

Question of The Fortnight

Every fortnight I’ll be asking a thought-provoking question in hopes of sparking interesting and enlightening discussion.

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

How valuable do you feel an understanding of the structures of complex systems may be in addressing the challenges we face today? Where do you think we should focus our complexity analysis lens?

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In the interest of avoiding the fate of that unfortunate bird, the Dodo, this course aims to help us secure our own personal legacies within scenario planning and the energy transition - and to leave a healthier planet for future generations.

You can access the course through Udemy using the link below!

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