The Dodo Club Newsletter - Special Edition: Might is Right?

Might is right:

Don’t get me wrong.  I believe we all benefit if the capacity to produce nuclear weapons can be limited.  But subscribers to this Newsletter know there is value in stepping back and exploring broader perspectives.

There are some good arguments – some very good arguments – for the military actions taken by the U.S. and Israeli leadership against Iranian targets.  However, there had been no obvious attempts to test the strength of these through international mechanisms like the U.N., nor domestic mechanisms like Congress.

The idea seems to have been brushed aside that international or constitutional norms apply to regimes with sufficient power to achieve goals through direct coercion.   

This is a scary world.  We’ve seen this worldview flourish in the past – for example, there were good ideological arguments for the Russian revolution in 1917, the rise of Nazi Germany in the 1930s, and the Iranian revolution itself in 1979 – but it has ultimately led to authoritarianism and oppression.  

We need to be careful and proceed with eyes wide open.  

This worldview will always be present to some extent in our societies because it is always present to some extent in the human heart. 

It is driven by a narrow focus on immediate self-interests, and this ethos permeates several of the published global scenarios I have been responsible for in the past, e.g. Scramble, Mountains and Islands. ( See Shell Scenarios Archive)

But our human hearts are complex.  We are relational.  We recognise that we can not thrive alone.  We can adopt a broader and longer-term conception of self-interest.  Our self-interests can align with others to get things done.  This ethos permeates global scenarios like Blueprints, Oceans and Sky.  

We also have a sense of morality.  A much-loved previous President of the United States, Abraham Lincoln, reversed the worldview by imploring, “Let us have faith that right makes might”.

Both of these worldviews continue to swirl around our lives today.  What we allow to influence us most will shape the ethos in our societies. 

The news headlines are currently dominated by “might is right” developments but over the longer term, scenarios like Blueprints deliver a world with better economic and environmental outcomes for us all.  

Indeed, if we look around us beyond the headlines, we can see the benefits of societies in which collaborative norms and common goods have become institutionalised.  People have fought for these politically in the past, we invest in these collectively through taxation now, and we should never take them for granted just because they are not always visible.

My wife and I have been caring for my 93-year-old mother for over a decade now.  She is still sharp as a pin mentally, but very fragile physically.  She had a fall recently, was hospitalised, and, sadly, it will not be safe for her to live at our home again in future.  She needs 24-hour access to trained professional carers with specialised equipment.  She has entered the last phase of her life’s journey, and I’m heartbroken.

When she fell, however, one phone call brought careful, professional paramedics to our home in minutes. They decided she was too fragile to be stretchered down steep Dutch stairs while we had huge Dutch windows she could pass through, so within a few more minutes, there were two fire engines at our home, and she was lowered to an ambulance by one of their cranes.  Everyone was so kind and caring, as well as professional.  As we thanked them profusely, they smiled and replied, “Just doing our job”.

Our institutions and norms for collaboration and collective action may not be perfect – indeed, many need serious reform or replacement – but let’s not forget their significance and fall into the narrow, individualised “might is right” mindset.  Even in a world where that mindset is dominant all around us, choices we make that engage collaboration will ultimately serve our self-interests better, as more can be achieved together than alone.  

This even includes our approach to military power, which is a sector where the “might is right” perspective is most likely to flourish.  

In the next two days, the 2025 NATO Summit is taking place yards from where I live in The Hague.  I don’t know whether the U.S. President will turn up or not – a choice that will certainly signal the current U.S. administration’s attitude to collective norms and post-WWII international military agreements.  

However, it is crucial that the European members of NATO strengthen their investment in the partnership and prepare to oppose both external military incursions from “might is right” regimes like the current Russian leadership and also internal disruption from the current “might is right” U.S. leadership. 

We are walking a tightrope, but a “might is right” world has no safety net.

The Dodo Club Online Course

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A series of follow-up courses that treat the main topics in increasing depth and detail will be provided if there is sufficient interest.

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