A note from me

Hi Folks,

The world economy is reeling at the moment in reaction to the punitive tariffs imposed by the Trump regime in the United States. In a world that has become deeply, and usually wonderfully, integrated in bringing together materials from the four corners of the globe to produce efficiently the goods that make our lives easier, throwing buckets of grit into the machine is beyond irresponsible. Nobody knows which parts of the machine will seize up and how that will spread through the system. What is clear is that the cost of living will increase for those who can least afford it, and that the Trump federal government will capture a lot of tariff-related income and attention to use for its political purposes.  

Last week, Mary and I were privileged to attend a fundraising gala for the Brittle Bones Society. I was delighted to witness the efforts of many people of goodwill contributing to both the enjoyment of others, including ourselves, and to funding research into this debilitating condition. Everybody involved in this gala benefited in some way. We really need to bottle and scale this kind of personal investment in self and others to address the many challenges facing all of our societies. There are a huge number of people and organisations of goodwill in the world, with access to insights and at least some resources, and a recognition of their long-term interests in a well-functioning society.  

We do not lack goodwill. We lack infrastructure.
We do not lack solutions. We lack the systems to scale them.

Addressing these infrastructure and systems issues is the focus of a new activity I’ve become involved with – United Peoples. If you follow the link, you can learn more.  

The emerging approach has at least two essential features. 

1. The fact that the different challenges and opportunities are deeply connected with each other means that, in principle, the approach has to be designed so that it could ultimately scale to touch "everything, everywhere, all at once". That seems hard-wired into the United Peoples’ approach and supporting technology.

2. Also the importance of self-interest and self-defined rewards are recognised as vital motivations to become involved, while a broader perspective on self-interest is encouraged as opposed to the atomised, transactional, isolated and short-horizon views that are currently fashionable.  

This Newsletter continues to build on threads we have explored previously that aim to help you in building a better life for yourself and the people around you, with a healthy planet, despite the current socio-political disruptions across the world. I hope you continue to find these Newsletters enjoyable and that they help you enrich your own personal or organisational perspectives.

I am also pleased to remind you that the Dodo Club Online Course is now also available on the Udemy platform. The course covers scenario/systems thinking for grappling with uncertainty, an introduction to energy transitions, and the development of strategic character in leadership. My hope is to make it accessible for all those looking to take active steps to improve their personal understanding of these issues.

You can find the link to access the course at the bottom of this Newsletter or through the link attached below:

The Dodo Club Online Course

My Bi-Weekly Guide

5 Factors Inhibiting Change (and Art)

In the previous two Newsletters, I noted that most people currently sense a need for change at some level in our increasingly troubled world. In the last Newsletter, we focused on the simple system underlying the dynamics of change in which a gap between where you are and where you want to be sets in train a series of emotions and activities that close the gap. 

If only life were so simple!  Desirable changes would happen easily every time we need them. The reality, however, is that multiple factors come into play to inhibit that simple correcting cycle from going around. The Systems Model, however, is helpful in categorising the 5 different types of inhibitors that require attention.  

Classes of change Inhibitors:

1. Denial
   In an ideal world, the anxiety or cognitive dissonance stimulated by the “gap” would stimulate the development of new approaches, but they are just as likely to provoke denial. Reasons are found for believing the apparent gap is just a temporary aberration that time will close, or for the gap being less significant than other pressing matters or even inevitable. The “standards” underpinning the desired condition are lowered and first the gap and then the actual conditions become “normalised”. Look how quickly our societies and press seem to have normalised the unacceptable circumstances in Ukraine and Gaza.

2. Paralysis
   Anxiety creates stress that can also provoke the “freeze” stress response rather than the more active “fight”, “flight” or “tend and befriend” responses. Under pressure, individuals and organisations either feel incapable of reacting sufficiently or they become overwhelmed in fighting immediate fires and do not address the deeper roots of the situation. They effectively become paralysed.

3. Lack of Innovative Capacity
   Almost by definition, in order to develop new approaches, there needs to be a capacity to innovate. But there is not always the institutional capacity or the resources (financial or intellectual) to enable this. Investing in innovation capacity is an essential component of resilience, but it is a long-duration game with uncertainties that short-horizon leaders and investors avoid. This neglect becomes apparent when circumstances need to change.

4. Opposition to Change
   The costs and benefits of change are rarely evenly distributed. Those who feel disadvantaged, even if this is only in relative and not absolute terms, will nurse grievances that can soon turn to active resistance and opposition. Proposed changes can also be co-opted into pre-existing socio-political disputes particularly where high levels of inequality and perceived unfairness have already been allowed to fester. Consider how rational considerations of climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions have been dragged into multiple rich/poor and left/right culture wars, bringing decades of delayed action with disastrous future consequences for many.

5. Implementation costs
   Making a change usually involves some kind of investment – a “cost”. In addition, it usually takes time for any benefits to become apparent and often circumstances can continue to get worse before they get better. There is a gap in time before the gap in circumstances begins to close. This cost in resources or time can act as a barrier to implementing actions where patience and persistence are required. Some costs have become familiar and the value of investments in terms of future benefits are accepted – we repair roads knowing that future traffic flow will be better and delays reduced. But attention to unfamiliar areas involved in implementing change are more likely to fall into the “costs” trap and face under-investment and impatience.

Many changes we now take for granted have taken centuries to achieve and, even now, have not penetrated everywhere. For example, slavery, particularly associated with European colonialism in Africa and the trade across the Atlantic to provide cheap labour, was a blight on supposedly civilised societies for centuries. Many people failed even to recognise that there was a “gap” – that treating people like “things” is immoral – or they denied the existence of inhumane treatment because they were only exposed to instances of reasonable treatment. I’m sure that all the inhibitors to change highlighted above were prominent in this period, which is why the slave trade lasted so long.

Turning to my interest in art history, this painting, “Family Group in a Landscape” by Frans Hals has a relevant story to tell in this regard.  

Hals was one of the great Dutch painters of the 17^th Century. Based out of Haarlem, he was particularly renowned both for his portraits (individual and group) and for the freedom of his brushstrokes. As with his near-contemporary Rembrandt, this freedom in approach was much admired by, and inspired, the Impressionists in the late 19^th century who, in turn, inspired or stimulated much contemporary art. To recognise the roots of “impressionism” in the painting, just look at the boot of the father figure.  

Wealthy families in the Netherlands commissioned such paintings partly to display their wealth and status. The quality of the clothes and lacework were symbols of fashion and wealth, as was the background country estate. Holding hands and the inclusion of the dog were symbols of faithfulness.  

Having seen this painting in an exhibition, however, modern eyes can not fail to be arrested by the African boy looking directly at you from the very centre of the painting. He has been included in the composition for a reason, and the centrality of his position must have had meaning. It is thought that the family portrayed is that of Jacob Ruychaver and his wife Maria Hendrixs. It was common for former directors-general of the Gold Coast to commission a painting with an African servant. So the boy is also a symbol of wealth and position for the family, although the individual himself is a servant in the household and the wealth largely derives from administering the trade in slaves.   

The active Dutch involvement in slave trading came after the colonisation of the area that became known as “Dutch Brazil”. The governor of that area was Johan Maurits who later built the Mauritshuis in The Hague – the site of my favourite art museum. It is important to acknowledge that much of what we enjoy today was built on the backs of horrendous human exploitation.  

We can’t change what has happened in the past, but we can all learn lessons relevant for today from examples like this, and apply those lessons in working for constructive change in current challenging circumstances.

The permanent home for the painting is the Museo Thyssen-Bornemisza, in Madrid.

Question of The Fortnight

Every fortnight I’ll be asking a thought-provoking question in hopes of sparking interesting and enlightening discussion.

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

If you consider the inhibitors of change that you have seen or experienced, do they fit within the five categories highlighted in this Newsletter?

The Dodo Club Online Course

The Dodo Club is Waiting!

The Dodo Club is my online course which has been built for collaboration, learning and mutual support.

In the interest of avoiding the fate of that unfortunate bird, the Dodo, this course aims to help us secure our own personal legacies within scenario planning and the energy transition - and to leave a healthier planet for future generations.

You can access the course through Udemy using the link below!

You can also follow me on LinkedIn where I host webinars, Q&A sessions and provide weekly posts discussing some of the most pressing issues of today.

To be a part of the discussion and to have your voice heard, please do follow along below!