A note from me

As I write today, the world feels like a very scary place. Missiles are raining down on people in Iran and Israel as hostilities escalate between the two regimes. Here in The Hague, around 100,000 people gathered yesterday to protest the Dutch government’s stance on Israel in light of the horrors in Gaza, which is a related situation.

When the Gaza conflict flared up almost two years ago, I published a Special Edition Newsletter that acknowledged the impossibility of knowing the eventual outcome in advance but noted": “What seems inevitable is that there will be incomprehensible human pain and misery. The fire has already consumed the lives of many ordinary people, just like you and me, and will continue to rage.”

And it has continued to rage.

I also noted that the current Israeli government leadership “sense a need to deploy massive force in order to reassure their population they can provide security in future and to deny Hamas their operational habitat, but their international and local reputation will be shredded by any suggestion of overreaction. Yet, I suspect they will almost certainly err on the side of decisive military action.”

And they have, indeed, continued to deploy brutal military action, and their reputation has, indeed, been shredded, at least among the people of the Netherlands.

Now, the regime has escalated hostilities towards its powerful, antagonistic near neighbour: Iran. The Iranian regime funds several anti-Israeli militias in the region, but direct open conflict between the nations has, so far, largely been avoided.

However, we have entered a fraught period where the legitimacy of both ruling regimes is at stake.

The legitimacy of the current hardline Israeli leadership is built on the promise of military security for its population. This explains the intensity of its war on Hamas in Gaza and its focus on destroying Iran’s potential to develop nuclear weapons that might offset Israel’s own deterrent advantage. At the same time, a core feature of Iran’s ruling regime is its refusal to recognise Israel’s legitimacy as a state, and its call for Israel’s destruction.

As a result, the legitimacy and personal reputations of the leaders of both hostile regimes are on the line. This drives a stark refusal to risk being seen by their respective constituencies as backing down. The most desirable outcome for both sets of leaders would be the disintegration of the opposing regime. However, both also recognise the danger to their own positions of outright war and widespread loss of life.

Therefore, we will probably see tightrope walking from both sides as they attempt to escalate without going too far. This will likely be accompanied by societal polarisation and unrest within both countries. This is an extremely unstable path. And, given the transactional approach of the Trump administration, neither regime really has an external actor they can credibly shift blame to for forcing de-escalation.

So, multiple outcomes remain plausible, and scenario-thinking is the only viable approach to considering them. Over the longer term, for those of us interested in promoting a more peaceful world, I recommend holding on to the Stockdale Paradox and the five suggestions highlighted in the special edition on Gaza.

This Newsletter continues to build on themes we have explored previously. The aim is to help you build a better life for yourself and those around you, despite the current socio-political disruptions across the world. I hope you continue to find these Newsletters valuable, and that they help enrich your personal or organisational perspectives.

My Bi-Weekly Guide

Lessons from City Scenarios (and Art)

Through recent editions of the Newsletter, we have been on a journey from complexity science through the stress nexus of food, water and energy security. This highlighted the quality of urban development as a major factor shaping security over the medium and longer term. This insight from over 10 years ago directed my attention to considering city scenarios. This early work is summarised in the publication “New Lenses on Future Cities”, published by Shell in conjunction with the Singapore Government’s Centre for Liveable Cities. I draw from this work significantly below.

Perhaps because I live in The Netherlands, this topic sometimes makes me think of a painting by the 20 th century Dutch abstract artist Piet Mondriaan (later spelled as Mondrian) that can be found in my chosen hometown of The Hague. His style of art evolved continuously throughout his lifetime, shifting from naturalism to abstraction. In 1913 he was living in Paris and, inspired by the Cubism of Braque and Picasso, painted the following work, entitled Tableau # 4. To me, this feels like a representation of a vibrant cityscape although, apparently, it is actually inspired by the form of a tree, a motif Mondrian returned to throughout his life.

In any case, it represents a significant step from his earlier naturalism towards the vigorous and rigorous abstraction for which he became more acclaimed as a pioneer. Here is his painting, also entitled Tableau #4, produced in 1925, over a decade later.

The idea of a city also evolving to remain vibrant and relevant is highlighted by the city scenario work. Leading cities like Singapore have initiated a virtuous cycle as illustrated below. However, without active attention, this can go into reverse and become a vicious cycle of decline as seen, for example, with Detroit in the USA which hasn’t yet been able to redefine itself and develop new advantages after the relative decline of its motor manufacturing industries (although there has been some recent progress).

The joint research into city scenarios highlighted five features supporting vibrant cities.

5 Factors shaping good Urban Development:

1. Flexible, but long-term, planning

   Urban planning decisions taken in the present need to build in sufficient capacity to adapt and evolve to reflect future realities, technology trends and stresses. A clear future vision helps build support for, or acceptance of, long- term and sometimes unpopular policies. When London set a target to reduce emissions by 60% from 1990 levels by 2025, this set a direction of travel but left enough room to design incremental policy. Introducing cycles for rent and daily charging for driving through the congestion zone are among subsequent schemes.

2. Investment in the future

   Hand-in-hand with a long-term vision comes the recognition that investments in the future need to be made continuously. Just like good companies continue hiring in an economic downturn to ensure a pipeline of future talent, cities that want to keep ahead will continue to invest in education, capacity and innovation hubs. Under a 1997 agreement between the Berlin Senate and the city’s business community, 75% of all new buildings constructed in any given year had to include solar thermal strategies in their design.

3. Capacity to implement

   Successful cities are not only able to design the proper policies or planning systems, but are highly effective in implementing these measures. This stems from a combination of having the right people involved and finding common goals between stakeholders – including the general public – creating support for the execution of plans. Having professional project management, technical and commercial experts to implement them is crucial.

4. Building trust

   Cities that attract businesses and citizens to settle provide a stable environment for them: consistency in rules and regulation with no sudden changes to these and a sense of fairness for all involved. This includes punishing any form of corruption visibly and providing justice to all inhabitants by treating everyone – including minorities – equally.

5. Collaboration

   Public and private sectors must partner together and innovate, finding financing models that work, particularly in cash-constrained environments. Co-ordinating bodies with overall responsibility can help overcome disagreements and avoid paralysis. Collaboration can also be encouraged through promoting transparency. Cities like Helsinki have been pioneers in putting data online on topics like population, transport and education.

An opportunity for you to learn more:

If you would like to learn more about the kinds of topics covered in these Newsletters, then please consider signing up to the introductory Dodo Club Online Course. This covers scenario/systems thinking for grappling with uncertainty, an introduction to energy transitions, and the development of strategic character in leadership.

In the interest of avoiding the fate of that unfortunate bird, the Dodo, this course aims to help us secure our own personal legacies within a changing world and the energy transition - and to leave a healthier planet for future generations.

You can access the course through Udemy using the link below!

Go to Course

A series of follow-up courses that treat the main topics in increasing depth and detail will be provided if there is sufficient interest.

Question of The Fortnight

Every fortnight I’ll be asking a thought-provoking question in hopes of sparking interesting and enlightening discussion.

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

Do you have a favourite city and, if so, why is this attractive to you?

The Dodo Club Online Course

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The Dodo Club is my online course which has been built for collaboration, learning and mutual support.

In the interest of avoiding the fate of that unfortunate bird, the Dodo, this course aims to help us secure our own personal legacies within scenario planning and the energy transition - and to leave a healthier planet for future generations.

You can access the course through Udemy using the link below!

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