The Dodo Club (64th Edition)-Realistic Hope in a Fragmenting World (1)

A note from me:

Hi Folks,

I write this during very troubled times when the primacy of “might is right” is again being violently asserted in our world.  Destruction is raining down on people across the Middle East.  Many families are grieving the loss of loved ones.  

The last two Dodo Newsletters have grappled with difficult prospects ahead (Edition 62 and Edition 63) while, outside the region, life largely carries on with varying degrees of normality, disturbance and confusion.  Last week I was able to pick up my first Dutch passport and, over this weekend, we have just celebrated Easter.  So, given the symbolic nature of Easter, my wife suggested that we reflect on “Hope” in the coming editions of the newsletter, which I will, indeed, begin to address in the main section of this one.

Actually, becoming a Dutch citizen, also reflects a certain perspective on hope.  There is a practical side of this development to simplify matters for me as a resident in Europe after the fiasco of Brexit.  However, we chose to continue to live here following my retirement from corporate executive life because we see many benefits in the way this particular society is organised and organises itself.  While we recognise faults and challenges, we hope this positive and constructive small nation will continue to embody and project the possibilities and benefits of a collaborative society that works effectively at resolving differences in perspectives and interests.  In the latest World Happiness Report, it is no surprise to us that The Netherlands ranks in the top 10 (#7, essentially following the Nordics), while my country of origin (the UK) is as low as #29. 

The Hague is also the City of Peace and Justice, and I was delighted at the citizenship ceremony in the Town Hall to affirm that I will uphold the laws and constitution of this state and contribute as best I can to the life and diversity of the city.  

Regular readers will know that I am trying to strengthen my appreciation of the history of art, and one of the well-known depictions of Hope is this fresco painting in the style of a sculpture by Giotto which can be found in the Scrovegni Chapel in Padua, Italy.  

Painted around 1306, this is one of the series of Seven Virtues in the chapel, with the gorgeous hands reaching for the crown being offered from heaven, and drawing the sculpted figure into the air from her “plinth”.  It is also a subtle commentary from Giotto on his placing painting ahead of sculpture in the vigorous arguments of his day about the relative merits of these two art forms. 

I have written previously about the life-affirming visit Mary and I made to the Scrovegni Chapel last year (see Edition 52), so I was delighted that you can just about see the presence of the Hope painting in one of the personal photos I made of Giotto’s marvellous Last Judgment.  If you look very carefully, you will see it at the very bottom left corner of the photograph, looking very small on the side wall of the chapel! 

My Bi-weekly Guide:

Realistic Hope in a Shattering World

In the last Newsletter, considering prospects in the Middle East, I posed the following questions and made the following comments:

“What happens now?  What is the outlook?  

It is literally impossible to tell.  As an experienced scenario practitioner, I know there are so many currents and counter-currents at play, with so many influential actors weighing up different possible choices, that there are a huge number of possible scenarios. There are many permutations, ranging from the apocalyptic to the merely awful.  

In my experience, however, various considerations point to another long drawn-out affair, even if the US finds a way to declare some kind of false victory and de-escalate its involvement.  Even if this particularly dramatic episode of military violence is deemed to be “over” in the near future, regional instability will continue to rumble on. 

In the meantime, the Russian war with Ukraine will be grinding on, and there remains the wildcard uncertainty of China and Taiwan.  The way the “middle powers” in Europe, the Middle East and Asia play their roles over the coming years will have a huge influence on the way conflicts and tensions driven by “major powers” play out.  This includes creating the space and circumstances for negotiation, and hence impacting the degree of misery that will ultimately be suffered by populations caught up in war.”  

This is not a positive outlook.  Similarly, looking out over the medium term, most people are increasingly pessimistic about the timely elimination of greenhouse gas emissions from our economies to avoid awful consequences from increased climate turbulence and change.  Inevitably, this will also drive increasing disruption, division and conflict in the world, with the most vulnerable suffering the most.  

So, in this shattering world, is it possible to have hope?  What does “hope” even mean in these circumstances, and what steps can we take to reach towards more positive and hopeful outcomes?  

My reflections have to begin in the areas of my greatest experience, and work out from there.  These considerations will continue across a number of newsletters as they are explored.   

Just under a decade ago, I contributed a chapter on the Energy System to a book entitled Realistic Hope, edited by Angela Wilkinson and Betty Sue Flowers.  The idea behind the title is, of course, to ground positive perspectives in a realistic understanding of current realities and technological possibilities.  In other words, to be practical rather than fanciful in highlighting the potential for positive narratives. This reflects the so-called Stockdale Paradox, named after James Stockdale who attributed his survival in horrific circumstances in captivity during the Vietnam War to:

1. The discipline to confront the most brutal facts of the current reality.

2. Never losing faith that you will prevail in the end and persistently working towards this outcome.

This approach has to remain the foundation for the hope that we can eventually evolve more positive outcomes from the troubled times we now find ourselves in.  

The book addressed a broad array of challenges currently prominent in the world, with different specialist authors contributing different chapters.  In summarising lessons from the multiple areas considered, Wilkinson and Flowers emphasised the following five general principles for realising realistic hopes:

1. Diversity – combining power from who is involved in progress

2. Dialogue – how players engage with each other  

3. Experimentation – what individual players do

4. Systems Thinking – the context for approaching problems

5. Futures Framing – the purpose of co-creating a more positive future 

As I have noted previously, “We are walking a tightrope, but a “might is right” world has no safety net”.   Collectively, guided by these principles, we must somehow weave this safety net ourselves,  We must  both generate and achieve realistic hopes if we are to avoid the very worst scenarios and at least achieve less awful outcomes over the longer term. 

The five principles above, however, only highlight general sources of realistic hope.  In contrast, in the upcoming Newsletters, I’ll dive into more specific possibilities and challenges, beginning with my experience with the energy system and decarbonisation, and building out from there.  As many of the obstacles to positive progress turn out to be socio-political, this will actually bring us into considering the nature and development of human nature and organisation, the breadth of perceptions of self-interests, and attitudes towards the less fortunate in society.  

As Dodo Club Newsletter readers, do you also have particular topics you would like me to consider through the lens of Realistic Hope?  If so, please let me know.

Question of The Fortnight

Every fortnight, I’ll be asking a thought-provoking question in hopes of sparking interesting and enlightening discussion.

I’d love to hear your response! You can do so by simply responding to this email.

Today’s question is:

Do you have a perspective on the current conflict in the Middle East, or a perspective more broadly on the many challenges our world is facing?  How hopeful are you about the state of the world that will be faced by generations ahead 50 years from now?

The Dodo Club Online Course

If you would like to learn more about the kinds of topics covered in these Newsletters, then please consider signing up for the introductory online course.

This covers scenario/systems thinking for grappling with uncertainty, an introduction to energy transitions, and the development of strategic character in leadership.

In the interest of avoiding the fate of that unfortunate bird, the Dodo, this course aims to help us secure our own personal legacies within a changing world and the energy transition - and to leave a healthier planet for future generations.

You can access the course through Udemy using the link below!

A series of follow-up courses that treat the main topics in increasing depth and detail will be provided if there is sufficient interest.